How Bad is the Triangle Real Estate Market?

Real estate at the national level is in a slump, right?  You probably think the local Triangle real estate market is performing horribly too.  With recent home sales reports you might think the Triangle market is in complete disarray.  But is it really that bad? 

It is certainly not what it was back at the peak of 2006 when over 35,000 homes sold in the Triangle.  As a point of reference, last year (2009) just over 22,000 homes were sold in the Triangle area of North Carolina (that's a 35% decline since the peak).  

Check out the following graph comparing 2010 to 2009:

 

 

 

 

 

In four out of the first five months, 2010 exceeded 2009 sales.  Only in the latter half of the year have sales fallen, coinciding with the end of this year's tax credit.  

In the past three months (August, September and October) sales have been down 33% for the Triangle compared to last year. However, if you do a year-over-year comparison of total homes sold in the first 10 months, sales in 2010 are down about 9%.  Not nearly as drastic compared to a year-over-year comparison of sales in just the past quarter.    

No doubt, the home buyer tax credits of 2009 and 2010 have led to abnormalities in the normal real estate cycle in the Triangle.  The 2010 home buyer tax credit inflated sales in the first half of the year (and obviously robbed some sales from the second half).  The 2009 tax credit inflated sales in the final months of 2009.  Hence why we are now seeing the 30%+ drop in sales when you compare the second half of 2010 to 2009.  It exacerbates the decline.  

However, no matter how you "slice and dice" the numbers, come year end, I doubt total homes sold in the Triangle will be 30% below 2009 levels.  Even if November and December sales were 30% below last year's levels, 2010 would only be 19% below 2009 levels. 

Not necessary a rosy picture, but maybe not the real estate apocalypse you've been envisioning.  

How do you see real estate sales finishing out the year?